Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion metric tons, according to the Global Carbon Budget 2026 released by the Global Carbon Project on November 10, 2026. The researchers credit the expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict’s effect on oil use.
Key points
- Fossil CO2 emissions are projected at 38.2 billion metric tons in 2026, down 0.4% from 2025, according to the Global Carbon Budget 2026.
- U.S. emissions are projected to fall 1.3% in 2026, mainly because coal emissions are dropping after a spike in 2025.
- Oil emissions are set to fall 1.9% worldwide, while coal emissions rise 0.6% and natural gas emissions dip 0.3%.
- The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is 150 billion metric tons, less than four years of current emissions.
What the Global Carbon Budget 2026 found
The report is the 21st annual edition of the Global Carbon Budget, produced by more than 140 scientists at over 90 institutions and led by Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter. It was released as a pre-print in the journal Earth System Science Data on November 10, with a peer-reviewed version to follow.
| Region | Projected change in fossil CO2, 2026 |
|---|---|
| World | −0.4% |
| United States | −1.3% |
| China | −0.9% |
| European Union | −1.5% |
| Japan | −1.0% |
| India | +4.4% |
| Rest of world | −0.7% |
Source: Global Carbon Project, November 10, 2026.
Total CO2 emissions, including land use, are still projected to reach 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026, up from 42.8 billion in 2025. The increase comes from land-use change: peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia linked to El Niño dryness, the Global Carbon Project says. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is projected at 427.7 parts per million in 2026, 54% above pre-industrial levels.
What is driving the decline
The Global Carbon Project says the drop in oil emissions is probably a short-lived reaction to the energy shock from the Iran conflict. Outside the largest emitters, it ties lower oil emissions to higher prices and supply constraints, and it projects international aviation emissions down 1%, partly because of reduced activity in the Middle East.
A companion study in Nature Climate Change, led by Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia, finds that solar, wind and electric vehicles are meeting about two-thirds of the recent rise in energy demand. It projects that 64% to 79% of emissions from new energy demand through 2028 will be offset by those technologies.
Solar and wind avoided an estimated 4.1 billion metric tons of CO2 in 2025, up from 0.28 billion in 2010, according to the study.
Why it matters
In a Carbon Brief analysis, Zeke Hausfather and Pierre Friedlingstein project U.S. coal emissions down 6.7% and oil emissions down 1.1% in 2026, while gas emissions rise 0.5%. The coal decline follows an unusual rise in 2025 that was driven by high gas prices and cold weather. For background, see our explainer on whether coal is renewable.
Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research cautioned that a one-year drop is “not a peak unless it is driven by structural change.” Over the past decade, total CO2 emissions, including land use, grew 0.3% a year, compared with 1.7% a year in the decade before, according to the Global Carbon Project.
The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is 150 billion metric tons, less than four years of current emissions, the Global Carbon Project says. Carbon Brief’s analysis specifies that this budget gives a 50% chance of staying within 1.5°C and counts from the start of 2027.
What’s next
- A peer-reviewed version of the report is due to follow the November 10 pre-print in Earth System Science Data.
Sources
- Fossil CO2 emissions decrease in 2026 — Global Carbon Project, November 10, 2026
- Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use — Carbon Brief, November 10, 2026
